January 2004 Archive

Been a couple of days — and again, the change in the campaign is indescribable. But, in an interview with a new volunteer, I realized the similarities of this campaign with another situation I was intimately involved in — the dot.com experience. We were fighting in a market that the leading company was generating all of the attention — both in terms of media interest, customer attention, vendor attention, and purchase orders. All without having the product “sold” to a single customer. And then, the first consumer reports came out that were not statistical samples — but the real purchasing patterns emerged. And suddenly, the customers took another look at the other products.

Our little company, in the wake of this domination of the media and mindshare, we took stock of what was happening. Our original efforts were stymied — both from the outside and from within. But we spent time looking, listening and learning — we refocused our efforts, we changed tactics and started to address some of our major issues — and we waited. Because no matter how good our site was, no matter how good our product was — until the customer decided to sample our product and decide to purchase it — we had very little justification for our efforts.

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Okay - an hour before the NH polls close — and we do not know specifically what will happen. We spent most of the day dealing with various issues — from the urgent (priority to launch new content for a VIP) to the important (spent time with setting up backup servers, emergency procedures and fundraising emails). But as the day wears on, people who were caught up in the energy that was Iowa are asking — why is it so quiet?

Life in the DC Townhouse (National Office) is more on a macro scale, things are not as active as in the individual states. Strategy is more on how we will be able to reach the groups on a national scale, both targeting our message to the individual states while ensuring our current and potential supporters get the information they need. So, while the people in the state offices are connecting with the field ops at the polling places or with the political operatives or the national press, we focus on maintaining the operation and delivering what the overall campaign requires.

Funny thing — we spend more time here thinking about how to deal with the same constraints of a typical business — the same unspoken “expectations” as to how Communications will want a particular message to match the talking points or how Fundraising will response to an email that goes out to our donor base or how the home page will be received. One of the strangest complaints came from a typo which had the word “onto” instead of “on to” — of which I heard so much comments on…

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Wow! This morning, after seeing yesterday’s Zogby poll, I was blown away:

“Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday’s one-day polling. In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant - New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.”

Unbelieveable. But, as I keep saying, New Hampshire voters are not guaranteed to vote one way or another. The news likes to say voters in NH will vote the way they want to — and not the way the pollsters tell them to.

Funny thing, with the new “front-loaded” Primary schedule (just learned what this actually means — there used to be a six-week break from NH to the next primary), I do not think the typical IA/NH dynamics with three tickets from IA / two tickets from NH is actually what will happen. All of the candidates will carry on into the Feb 3rd States — and it is there that HD will truly find his stride. He has had his volunteer teams in place for some time — and, while they might be disillusioned from IA, they might get a boost from NH and then Feb 3rd could be the watershed for his candidacy. For a simple reason — it is there he and the other candidates are looking for their momentum. That is what I wonder about. For NH, I do not know if we will win — I am not a believer in polls — I believe people want to make their own minds up and polls, while a short-cut in making people notice other candidates, I think they will make a choice based on what they want to happen.

Best thing that happened to us — we fixed our site. The number of emails we get thanking us for the ease of use and how easy it is to actually find information on our site is wonderful. And the hits (traffic) keeps on coming. The press reports on our traffic increase, but it goes way beyond that. The email responses are incredible, the contributors, the number of volunteers…it is astounding. Now, the question is: how do we leverage all of this enthusiasm to give GWB his ticket to Crawford, Texas.

Tongue-in-cheek thought: do we really think that GWB will move back to Crawford, Texas?

Now — it is getting close once again — we are waiting for the next shoe to drop — and whether or not Kerry will be able to pull off New Hampshire. What I believe is that, with Dean wounded at the moment — his supporters know that NH is the “Waterloo” as the press calls it. And Kerry’s team is truly working the voters — trying to pull the same story in NH as he did in Iowa. From MSNBC, they write:

Siphoning from Dean
He hopes to keep siphoning voters from Dean, whose temperament and judgment came into question during the Iowa caucus campaign. Crowds at both Kerry and Dean events are filled with people torn between the candidates, their hearts for Dean and their heads for Kerry. “I like Dean a lot but I’m concerned about his electability,” said Art Hayek, 50, before Kerry spoke to a crowd in Concord. “I fear he might not have the experience and support beyond voters like me. Kerry might have a better shot against Bush because of his war experience.”

At a Dean rally, Gloria Kelly, 55, said, “His Iowa speech turned me off and I started thinking about Kerry. But if I had to decide now, and I don’t, I’d go with my heart and Howard.”

Kerry is solidifying his claim to be the party’s establishment candidate. In addition to the League of Conservation Voters endorsement, Kerry in recent days has won support from former Vice President Walter Mondale and South Carolina Sen. Ernest Hollings.

The line “Heart says Howard, Head says Kerry” — was the line that was being brandied about back in June/July — when people were amazed at the prowess that HD had accomplished back in June/July. And I had the same issue going through my mind. What I believe in is the power of the “movement” that HD has created, or more appropriately, been the focal point of. All of the progressives — the people who believe in the transformative effects of the Internet had (to some degree) successfully accomplished the goal of changing the process and structure of business. Now, you can not expect to see a successful company without a quality website and/or a method of handling customer feedback/complaints from email or forums.

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So far — dollars keep rolling in — we will hit our million dollar goal within the time frame we set for ourselves — if not sooner. Our front office staff has had to increase by having not one, but two people manning the phones from 7am til late at night on the weekdays. Weekends run into weekends — you barely remember that it is Friday — if it was not for the calendar that reminds you of the coming NH primary.

It is funny — when I first came here — the organization was relatively small — there was the Cyber Organizer, an Online Media/Email person, a Web Content Manager and a person handling a deluge of emails with an Outlook client. The team had just launched a new version of the website (personally opinion, I was not a big fan of it) and we were dealing with end of quarter email campaign trying to raise money with a gimmick of Hammer Bush with a cute Flash piece.

Emails and database integration was an interesting hodge-podge, and the website management consisted of handling emergency requests and making sure we were abreast of content that was never purposed for the web.

What a different a few months makes. The team has grown to handle technology issues, a person who was a fan of Kerry happened to be *very interested* in revising our site — and created a mock-up when he was sick over the course of six days which we then spent the time implementing it, we expanded our customer service team with a kick-a** eCRM solution that has made responding to emails a breeze, we expanded our community efforts with a blog update to handle the trolls, installed a forum (all volunteer driven) and even expanded our MeetUp connections with another “group communication platform” tool.

The fundraising system/engine has been upgraded, giving individual supporters ways to show their support and to get donors to donate on their behalf has been amazing, and we have triple redundancies when things get really heavy. Our email communications have been upgraded — and we coordinate with the other communication channels much more effectively, by improving our processes and communications.

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From spending three months with and people saying “What are you doing working for Kerry?” to emails that continue to congratulate me for being part of the Kerry team - unbelievable.

As we were watching the polls prior to the Iowa caucus - we were amazed at the growth of the stats - showing JK’s increasing popularity in Iowa. My biggest concern was the vaunted “labor support” and 3,500 volunteers that Team Dean had brought out. But even as the entrance polls said we had a lead, I still wondered what would actually happen. When we came out with a 20 point lead above HD - it was unbelievable. We were astounded and excited.

After CNN announced their choice of JK as the winner, a group of us came back to the National HQ to watch the post-caucus analysis and get ready for the outbound site issues. What was the most amazing thing was when JK, in the midst of his speech, said “JohnKerry.com” — our entire team bounced up and cheered — finally, on national television, he had fit in the website into a speech. We did not hear the next three minutes of the speech, we were so excited. What happened next was amazing — as the load on our contribution engine ballooned through the roof — which caused us to engage the backup server and capture our donations with both systems. It was unbelievable — after four months of building — the system worked incredible well — and we had the most successful night of the campaign.

The rest has been something of public record — we hit $250,000 with online donations as of noon the next day — a short 12 hours after the announcement. We hit $500,000 after more than 24 hours — and the numbers keep rolling. Emails generate tremendous response — and people that would not reply to emails are now excited to communicate and offer their support. I wonder if the Edwards campaign feels a similar way - with their hard work finally being recognized as well. And one thing that was incredibly touching — when Congressman Gephardt spoke on national television and announced his decision, this hardened team of people in our office went incredibly quiet and was almost reverent. He is a terrific person and an incredible congressman — and a terrific competitor. We are better people for his involvement in this campaign.

Myself — I find that I am up at 2am working on the next volunteer email — prepping for New Hampshire. This is going to be an incredible race — one in which we are making a difference. Only casualty I have had recently is the fact I could not be at Decom in London this evening — which sounded wonderful. I so look forward to the photos that someone took.

Kerry comes up to 25% in the Zogby poll - but what does that mean? With the complexity of the Iowa caucuses and the need for highly roganized coordination in Iowa - it is going to be quite a race.

Interestingly enough, listening to the pundits on the TV - you hear from CNN that “it is a four-way race” - and rarely hear about how Kerry is truly doing. At times, it seems as though FOX loves Kerry — always speaking highly of Kerry. From the DC office — the campaign is operating on all-cylinders — but the excitement is in the offices both in Iowa and New Hampshire — feeling the excitement that only a Presidential Campaign can provide. The other offices — especially the Feb 3rd States are getting teed up.

What will be interesting is what happens on Jan 20th. When it happens — watch out.

Today, as I was doing my early morning email check, I learned that Kerry broke expectations and now is one point ahead of both Gephardt and Dean in Iowa. While statistically this is still considered a dead-heat between the three (and Edwards at 17%), it brings the big “mo” to the campaign that was expected so long ago.

How does this show up? In our inbound emails which has gone overwhelmingly positive with comments like “Way to go!” and “I always knew you would be the one” and “I have always been a Kerry supporter” to the online donations which have increased incredibly in this month - compared to the month following last quarter. Site usage is up, volunteerism is going through the roof - and all because of a simple poll that is a statistically moving average of a three day polling sample.

What does this say? Kerry and our team have been working incredibly hard in the past few months - working to overcome the comments from the “washed-out front-runner” and “troublesome campaign” - which in my five months with the campaign has shown nothing but growth and improvement.

The teams are tighter, the energy is focused, the growth in measured and enthusiastic. While there are always things to improve, a campaign is not the glamour it promises from the outside. In ways, I envy the person who I was when I contemplated joining the campaign six months ago. It was a magically thing - to be part of changing the course of history and all that rot. Now, it is a race — not a sprint as it might seem, but as Marcus put it “a marathon”. And our team is definitely a bunch of marathon runners.

It is seven days away from the Iowa Caucus and I watch the pundits and pollsters speak on behalf of what they expect to happen. Just recently, they showed the fact that polls - even as close as seven days from the caucus - can not effectively determine ranking. It is obvious that all of the candidates are jockeying for position - Gephardt wants to be the Dean spoiler in Iowa, Kerry wants to be the Gephardt spoiler and Edwards wants to be the Kerry spoiler. It seems almost incestuous - which makes this whole effort sound like watching a football match - without any idea what the players are capable of doing.

Wouldn’t it be interesting to have a way of measuring the performance of the candidates in the election with certain metrics - similar to pass completions, touchdowns and such. I wonder if anyone has actually built such a model to help determine the impact of endorsements (personal, institutional), size of field support team and when launched, size of phone bank, etcera.

Will Gephardt spoil Dean? I think not. Will Kerry beat Gephardt - that might be the surprise that we do not expect. You might suggest that I am a bit biased, but I am curious how the Midwest sees Dean and Kerry as the “liberal, East Coasters”. And will Edwards surprise others? Not sure - but he is trying his hardest. The question will be - what happens in New Hampshire - and then onward to Feb 3rd States.