Posts for January 27th, 2004

Okay - an hour before the NH polls close — and we do not know specifically what will happen. We spent most of the day dealing with various issues — from the urgent (priority to launch new content for a VIP) to the important (spent time with setting up backup servers, emergency procedures and fundraising emails). But as the day wears on, people who were caught up in the energy that was Iowa are asking — why is it so quiet?

Life in the DC Townhouse (National Office) is more on a macro scale, things are not as active as in the individual states. Strategy is more on how we will be able to reach the groups on a national scale, both targeting our message to the individual states while ensuring our current and potential supporters get the information they need. So, while the people in the state offices are connecting with the field ops at the polling places or with the political operatives or the national press, we focus on maintaining the operation and delivering what the overall campaign requires.

Funny thing — we spend more time here thinking about how to deal with the same constraints of a typical business — the same unspoken “expectations” as to how Communications will want a particular message to match the talking points or how Fundraising will response to an email that goes out to our donor base or how the home page will be received. One of the strangest complaints came from a typo which had the word “onto” instead of “on to” — of which I heard so much comments on…

Read the rest of this entry »

Wow! This morning, after seeing yesterday’s Zogby poll, I was blown away:

“Kerry had a 19-point lead in Monday’s one-day polling. In the final analysis, voters raised doubts about Howard Dean. Through the second half of 2003, New Hampshire voters indicated that they were angry but overwhelmingly felt that President Bush was a shoo-in for re-election . But as in Iowa, the closer Democrats got to actually voting, there was a renewed sense that President Bush could and must be defeated. In our final sample, just about half (49%) told us that Dean was unlikely to defeat the President (that is fifteen points worst than his worst day in Iowa). At the same time, only fifteen percent said it was unlikely that any other Democrat in the race could defeat the President. Howard Dean was the man of the year, but that was 2003. In 2004, electability has become the issue and John Kerry has benefited by developing a sharper message, by his veteran status, and - this is particularly significant - New Hampshire Democrats tell us that he looks like a president.”

Unbelieveable. But, as I keep saying, New Hampshire voters are not guaranteed to vote one way or another. The news likes to say voters in NH will vote the way they want to — and not the way the pollsters tell them to.

Funny thing, with the new “front-loaded” Primary schedule (just learned what this actually means — there used to be a six-week break from NH to the next primary), I do not think the typical IA/NH dynamics with three tickets from IA / two tickets from NH is actually what will happen. All of the candidates will carry on into the Feb 3rd States — and it is there that HD will truly find his stride. He has had his volunteer teams in place for some time — and, while they might be disillusioned from IA, they might get a boost from NH and then Feb 3rd could be the watershed for his candidacy. For a simple reason — it is there he and the other candidates are looking for their momentum. That is what I wonder about. For NH, I do not know if we will win — I am not a believer in polls — I believe people want to make their own minds up and polls, while a short-cut in making people notice other candidates, I think they will make a choice based on what they want to happen.

Best thing that happened to us — we fixed our site. The number of emails we get thanking us for the ease of use and how easy it is to actually find information on our site is wonderful. And the hits (traffic) keeps on coming. The press reports on our traffic increase, but it goes way beyond that. The email responses are incredible, the contributors, the number of volunteers…it is astounding. Now, the question is: how do we leverage all of this enthusiasm to give GWB his ticket to Crawford, Texas.

Tongue-in-cheek thought: do we really think that GWB will move back to Crawford, Texas?